Pengaruh Profitabilitas, Likuiditas, dan Risiko Kredit terhadap Struktur Modal Bank ASEAN-6 dengan Moderasi COVID-19

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of profitability, liquidity, and credit risk on commercial banks' capital structure in ASEAN-6 countries, while considering the moderating role of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a balanced panel dataset comprising 615 observations from 109 commercial banks across six ASEAN countries over the 2018–2023 period, the analysis employs a multiple regression and moderated regression analysis. External control variables include bank size, asset growth, inflation, and GDP growth. The results reveal that credit risk and liquidity have a significant negative effect on capital structure. In contrast, profitability, the direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and its interaction with the key determinants do not exhibit statistically significant effects. These findings support the Pecking Order Theory, indicating that banks with higher liquidity tend to maintain a more conservative capital structure by reducing their reliance on external debt. This is particularly evident as increases in the Loan to Deposit Ratio diminish liquidity, thus influencing the banks' capital decisions.